Crypto is Imploding, we're going to 0, it's all over.... or is it?
6/19/2024 Intel Inject - Separating signal from noise for you since 2020
Welcome back, Investors, Cryptopreneurs and DeFi Enjoyers!
It’s definitely been another eventful few weeks! Crypto is selling off, there’s panic in the streets, Powell is still not interested in rate cuts, and institutions are sinking their talons into Crypto. Crypto sentiment is in panic mode, and giving me 2020 mid-bull cycle vibes.
Before we begin, I honestly struggled trying to find the best way to streamline all of the insane alpha I got from Consensus and the latest and greatest in Crypto. A ton of crypto drama and key events have unfolded since Consensus 2024, making it difficult to separate noise from signal (which is precisely what I aim to do with our INTSUM).
I’m going to do my best to just give the key points where possible, and only double-click on topics that need some data-points to back it. What I ended up settling on was frontloading this newsletter with Crypto Macro and Trades, with the intent to release our Consensus 2024 Alpha Newsletter a few days after. (Don’t worry, data currency is still very much relevant)
Feel free to leave me some notes in the comments below if you have any additional questions or things you’d like me to address more specifically. That being said, let’s dive in.
Crypto Macro
Okay so, Crypto is selling off in a massive way, BTC is struggling to stay above Short Term Holder Cost Basis (~$63.7k), and exchanges are happily cashing out margin calls on over-extended, long-levered traders.
If we get acceptance on BTC below $65k, we could be in for real pain. One could reason that because STH cost basis is around $63.7k mark, a break below that could shake out spot BTC holders as well as any long levered traders. For the time being, dips in price are for buying until proven otherwise. If you have no stables / fiat left then hold what you got.
Humor:
As everyone is well aware, BTC and the broader Crypto market have been playing in a very ugly range.
Sideways chop + downside volatility is hell for traders below the advanced level. Yet another reason why I never advise trading these kinds of ranges unless you know what you’re doing.
If your intent is to trade this range, Cash and carry trades are king here (that’s what institutions are doing to clip easy basis points whilst maintaining market-neutrality), and so are delta-neutral / market-neutral strategies. If you’re playing long/short only, then you’ll want to be using short time-frame trade intervals with low to mid-leverage and scaling out on wins quickly.
Don’t be like this guy:
🛑 Disclaimer! Tons of data-dense, Alpha Ahead! Comes at the cost of reading and using brain! Well worth it, I promise! 🛑
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