Crypto Intel Inject | Q3 End | Positioning Update - $44444 BTC

9/16/2024

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Intel Inject

Welcome back everyone, big updates to my current trades, thoughts and general positioning. As assessed, everything moving in alignment with my overall bearish thesis. Still believe we have one last leg down (very soon) until we get our final explosive move to the upside, barring any black swans related to WW3.

A 36-hour monetary rollercoaster will start with the FED's probable decision to cut interest rates on Wednesday, and finish on Friday with the outcome of the BOJ’s first meeting since it raised borrowing costs and helped sow the seeds of a global selloff (Yen cash and carry trade unwind).

Markets hate uncertainty, especially risk-assets like Crypto. Stage could be set for one last leg lower until "Up-tober" (October).

Macro:
*US: Fed Interest Rate Decision on the 18th [25-vs-50 basis point rate cut discussion (50:50 odds, It is the first meeting in years where there's serious uncertainty about the rates decision)] *Japan: Trade data on 18th *UK: BoE rate decision on 19th *US: Initial jobless claims on 19th *Japan: CPI on 20th *Japan: BoJ Interest Rate Decision 20th *China: loan prime rates on 20th *US Labor Department, BLS: State Employment & Unemployment, Monthly Report on 20th *US: GDP (QoQ) (Q2) on 26th US: PCE on 27th

Astro:
Full Moon on the 17th (Increased Market Volatility)
New Moon on October 2nd (Potentially Bullish / mean reversion to the upside)

Crypto:
Trump's World Liberty Financial Project Launch on 16th (Accompanied with Twitter Spaces for those looking to tune-in, and get info on Airdrop / Token Purchase)

*Sky [MakerDAO] to launch its new SKY governance token and USDS stablecoin on 18th

*Terraform Labs's Chapter 11 bankruptcy reorganization hearing on 19th

*Final SEC decision deadline for Bitcoin ETF Options is 21

*Hamster Kombat (HMSTR) TGE, Airdrop and exchange listings [Binance, etc] on 26th

*Changpeng Zhao aka 'CZ' expected to release from prison on 29th (Bullish -- Binance will very likely drop all limit sells allowing for mean reversion to the upside within Crypto)

Uniswap v4's launch set for Q3

Events:
Token2049 Singapore Event [18-19]: [Speakers: Vitalik Buterin, Charles Hoskinson, Anatoly Yakovenko, Richard Teng, Balaji Srinivasan, Snowden, Nic Carter, Eric Wall, Mert Mumtaz, Jason Choi, and Founders or CEOs: EigenLayer, Polymarket, Aave Labs, Ethena Labs, Electric Capital, infinityhedge?, Wintermute, DWF Labs, Circle, Chainlink, Monad, Render Network, Akash Network, Helium Foundation, Securitize, Polygon, NEAR, Curve, etc....

*Solana Breakpoint Event [19-21]

*European Blockchain Convention [25-26]

Token Unlocks: $700M-$800M [till month end] ⊷ ARB: $50M: 2.6% on 16 ⊷ ID: $27M: 18.2% on 22 ⊷ OP: $48.6M: 2.6% on 30 ⊷ SUI: $70M: 3.2% on Oct. 1 TIA: ~$850M: 83% of float on Oct. 30

What Bloomberg Economics Says:
“We think Fed Chair Jerome Powell supports a 50-basis point cut. However, the lack of a clear signal from New York Fed President John Williams before the pre-meeting blackout period makes us think Powell doesn’t have the full committee’s support.”

Last Minute Updates:
Fed Funds Futures Now Show 58% Probability of 50bps Rate Cut vs 42% for 25bps

Small Account Update and Positioning:

Update of my positions from our small account challenge

$44,444 Bitcoin remains target. That’s when I’ll start to TWAP out.

Have the rest of my stables (mostly) locked in Suilend for ~12%. (Sui Rewards)

This is just what I’m doing, there might be other more efficient yield-bearing vehicles, but my goal is to continue accumulating as much Sui rewards as possible, whilst limiting downside risk. I’ll eventually roll most of these stables back into BTC/SUI longs once we bottom out, and the rest will be in SUI-USDC LP(s).

Closing Thoughts:
This will be an insane week for Crypto. Markets hate uncertainty, so as assessed we're seeing some deleveraging and de-risking in the markets at the moment. I expect this to continue to some degree, with big volatility coming on the 18th, and when the BOJ announces their actual decision regarding raising rates or not. Many of you already know I still remain net short, and will continue to be net short until we clear macro headwinds. We could see a lot more downside volatility, however, it's important to note that we as investors should seek to use this as an opportunity to get one final solid entry on our high-conviction tokens / holds. This could be the last opportunity to lower our average cost basis, and get attractive entries to ride off into the sunset once the market reverses.

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Stay relentless.

- PJ