Crypto and Macro Intel Inject
10/1/2024 -- Positioning and Macro
Macro:
Powell Speaks on Sep. 30
China’s Golden Week holidays Starts from Oct. 1
VP debate: Walz & Vance CBS debate on Oct. 1
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims on Oct. 3
U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate on Oct. 4
Crypto:
Transfer restrictions on the EIGEN token are expected to be removed on Sep 30 Axelar Network Announcement on Oct 3
SEC deadline to appeal XRP ruling on 6 [SEC Expected to Appeal Judge’s Ruling Concerning the XRP programmatic sales in the Ripple lawsuit]
Events: Ethereum Kuala Lumpur 2024: Conference: 5-6 Oct., Hackathon: 4-6 Oct., Messari Mainnet 30 SEP - 2 Oct
Token Unlocks: $900M [%'s are of Cir. supply]
ZETA: 13.4%: $40M on 1 Oct
MAV: 9.5%: $8.7M on 1 Oct
ENA: 22.5%: $158M on 2 Oct
SUI: 2.4%: $120M on 2 Oct
IMX: 2%: $5M on 4 Oct
NEON: 93.4%: $19M on 7 Oct
MODE: 38.4%: $6.5M on 7 Oct
Huge TIA unlock late Oct. ~$1B (don't be exit liquidity)
October SIGACTS:
Uniswap v4 Launch
Starknet Staking
Avalanche's 'Avalanche9000' Upgrade
LAZIO Token Unlock ~20%: $4M
TIA Token Unlock worth around $1B
FTX voting results filing, confirmation of the Plan hearing, Omnibus Hearing (billions in liquidity returned to clients, could find its way back into Crypto Assets)
Astro: Solar Eclipse on Oct. 2 (typically bullish)
What Bloomberg Economics Says: “We expect a robust headline print for September nonfarm payrolls, which could even revive talk of “no landing” for the US economy. But we think the headline figure will overstate labor-market strength, partly because of overstatements related to the BLS’s ‘birth-death’ model, and partly due to temporary seasonal effects.”
My Thoughts: Another big month for Crypto. All things considered September was solid, market is slightly heated, could be looking at one more large pull back before Q4 "up-only" kicks in. Historically, (in an election year) October is a bit flat -> red for legacy (equities). Given Crypto's high-correlation to Crypto these days since the last Yen Carry Trade Unwind Event, one could argue that October will also be relatively flat or red for Crypto as well, despite all the highly-bullish sentiment / charts. I'm cautiously optimistic, no real break of market structure (imo) until we break above ~$72k decisively on high time frames.
Positioning:
Trades
(HOLD) BTC SHORT (Hedge)
(OPEN) TIA SHORT (Token Unlock)
(CLOSE) SUI LONG
DeFi
haSUI-SUI Vault — Cetus
BLUB-SUI LP — Turbos
SOL-USDC — Orca
Honorable Mention:
ZRO-WETH — Beefy
OVN-USD+ — Beefy
Stay relentless.
- PJ