Bracing for Harder Times Ahead -- Capturing Contrarian Market and Geopolitical Alpha
Ares Intelligence Report #4
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Welcome back and thanks for being here. It’s been another interesting couple weeks in the markets, with credit contagion continuing, and more FUD across major crypto networks proliferating. Despite the massive waves of negativity in the current economic / market recession, there are many targets of opportunity to pursue. Further, we’ll look to dive into some more niche data sets to deliver contrarian alpha.
“Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked…”
BLUF (Bottom Line Upfront)
Mt. Gox lawsuit — Victims to potentially receive $150k Bitcoin (Nuance to this repayment) *
History that matters - Comparative analysis between Japan’s Nikkei 225 crash and the current US economic recession. *
Celsius has successfully paid down their Bitcoin loan ($0.00 liquidation price now); pivots toward paying off Aave, Compound Debt with $950M Collateral prize.
0x_b1 (DeFi Crypto Whale) is pursuing legal action against Celsius. 0x_b1 alleges that Celsius was mismanaging funds / risk with 0x_b1 and other DeFi protocols.
Goldman Sachs (and probably other institutions) have raised over $2 billion in funds to buy Celsius assets. Smart money buying the blood and bones for cheap, then repurposing later.
Solana Labs, Multicoin Accused of allegedly violating Securities Law by a SOL Investor.
Voyager files Chapter 11 Bankruptcy. (RIP)
Three Arrows Capital contagion continues as many counterparties including Blockchain.com take hits in the millions ($270M).
Bureaucratic War to regulate Bitcoin in the government
FTX to acquire BlockFi, cheap.
Harmony Bridge Hacked.
Large amounts of stablecoin dry powder is waiting to be deployed.
Despite government narrative, current economic data still indicates high-likelihood of extended recession and market downturn.